Paris [France], September 9: France's minority government, led by Prime Minister Francois Bayrou, collapsed on Monday after a decisive confidence vote, with 364 deputies opposing him and 194 in favour.
Bayrou must now submit his government's resignation to President Emmanuel Macron. While the vote did not directly target the presidency, the defeat nonetheless deals a blow to Macron. France is heavily indebted and faces urgent pressure to rein in public finances. Bayrou had proposed cuts amounting to nearly €44 billion ($51.6 billion) for the coming year, including the abolition of two public holidays - a move that was widely rejected by the public.
Macron now faces pressure to act quickly and appoint a new prime minister to avoid further political fallout.
His challenge is that neither his centrist bloc, the left-wing alliance, nor Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally holds a majority in the National Assembly. Bayrou is the second prime minister to fail within just over a year amid this complex political landscape, and it remains unclear who Macron could work with to form a stable government.
Macron could dissolve the National Assembly and call new elections, as he did following his centrist bloc's defeat in last year's European elections, aiming to create clearer parliamentary majorities.
However, it remains uncertain whether French voters would make significantly different choices, and the lower house could remain as divided as it is now, leaving governance just as challenging.
Cross-party coalitions are uncommon in France, and calling new elections would also carry risks for Macron. Le Pen's National Rally or the left-wing alliance could win an outright majority, forcing the president to appoint a prime minister from their ranks. In such a scenario, known as cohabitation, Macron would have to share power, significantly reducing his influence.
While Macron has repeatedly stated that he does not want to dissolve the assembly again, he has not categorically ruled it out. But the government collapse is not only a political problem.
France urgently needs to solidify its austerity course and pass a budget for the coming year. Prolonged political instability could lead to a loss of confidence in the markets, further straining finances.
Despite international crises, Macron is now likely to focus on domestic issues and is expected to take a step back in the coming days from the international stage.
The domestic political outlook Macron's woes are likely to intensify following this vote. The left-wing La France Insoumise, or LFI party, is already calling for his removal and an early presidential election, even though the vote is not scheduled until 2027.
Le Pen's National Rally is also pushing for elections, either through the dissolution of the assembly or Macron's resignation.
Macron cannot run for a third term in 2027 due to term limits. It remains unclear who his centrist bloc will nominate as a successor. Many moderates fear that Le Pen, after several failed attempts, could now win the presidency. However, an ongoing legal case raises questions about whether she will even be able to run.
Source: Qatar Tribune